Quantum Day, expected to arrive as soon as 2025, refers to the day when quantum computers will be capable of cracking current encryption protocols used on the internet. This phenomenon is due to the ability of quantum computers to exploit entanglement between their computational units, known as qubits, and perform certain calculations much faster than conventional computers.
A significant concern is the impact on RSA encryption, a widely used internet encryption algorithm. RSA relies on mathematical problems that are easy to create but difficult to solve, such as multiplying two large prime numbers but finding the factors given their product. Factoring large numbers into primes on a conventional computer is time-consuming, taking trillions of years for a 2048-bit RSA encryption. However, a large enough quantum computer could accomplish this within seconds.
The primary concern is not the safety of the internet but the potential deciphering of previously encrypted data. If RSA and similar protocols are broken, secret data encrypted in the past can be deciphered, posing a significant threat. This situation has likely prompted intelligence agencies to hoard encrypted data and attempt to acquire the first quantum computer to gain an early advantage.
Estimates suggest that approximately 10 million physical qubits are needed to break RSA encryption. Current records for physical qubits are around 1000, held by IBM. While there is a significant gap between the current record and the estimated number needed, advancements in quantum computing technology could reduce this gap.
In summary, Quantum Day presents a potential threat as quantum computers could decipher previously encrypted data, leading to political consequences and security concerns. While the timeline for this event remains uncertain, it is crucial to be aware of the implications and take necessary precautions to protect sensitive information.
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